A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
